Forcasting


(محمد فوزى حسين) #1

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What is forecasting?
• Primary Function is to Predict the Future
• Why are we interested?
Affects the decisions we make today
• Examples: who uses forecasting in their jobs?
• forecast demand for products and services
• forecast availability of manpower
• forecast inventory and materiel needs daily
Characteristics of Forecasts
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They are usually wrong!
• A good forecast is more than a single number
Error and range (high and low)
• Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate.
• Less accurate as we go further into the future.
• Forecasts should not be used to the exclusion of known
information (info not presented in the history of the studied
series).
What Makes a Good Forecast?
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It should be timely
• It should be as accurate as possible
• It should be reliable
• It should be in meaningful units
• It should be presented in writing
• The method should be easy to use and understand in most cases.
• Ease of updating as new data becomes available.
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#2

جزاك الله خيرا ويفضل لو كان الشرح باللغة العربية