Probabilistic Method for Predicting Ship Collision Damage خاص ب السفن


(Eng-Maher) #1

Probabilistic Method for Predicting Ship Collision Damage خاص ب السفن

ABSTRACT

This paper describes a method for developing probability density functions (pdfs) describing struck ship damage in ship collisions.
Struck and striking ship speed, collision angle, striking ship type and striking ship displacement are treated as independent
random variables in this problem. Other striking ship characteristics are treated as dependent variables derived from
the independent variables based on relationships developed from worldwide ship data. A simplified collision model (SIMCOL)
is used in a Monte Carlo simulation to predict probabilistic damage extents. SIMCOL applies the scenario variables
directly in a time-stepping simultaneous solution of internal (structural) deformation and external (ship) dynamics. Results
are presented for collisions with four notional tankers designs.
الرابط هو …
http://www.aoe.vt.edu/~brown/Papers/OEIJProbabilisticCollision2001.pdf


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